Arsene Wenger.. The Game Has Passed You By

     There were some surprising results on the first day of the Premier League season, but the biggest one has to be Aston Villa going into the Emirates and beating Arsenal 3-1.  Arsene Wenger used to be a good manager, but at this point, the game has passed him by.  Wenger has been quoted as saying that finishing in the top four and qualifying for the Champions League is like winning a trophy.  This is the same Arsene Wenger who led Arsenal's Invincibles through an unbeaten 2003-04 Premier League Season.  The fact is that it's not the same and for a club such as Arsenal, it simply isn't good enough.
     The root of the problem is that Arsenal were transformed from being a buying club to being a selling club.  While Wenger never spent money like it was going out of style the way Roman Abramovich or Khaldoon Al Mubarak do, he bought good players and made them into stars.  Starting with the departure of Cesc Fabregas to Barcelona, and more crucially the departure of Robin Van Persie to Manchester United, Arsenal became a selling club.  They may have brought in players such as Santi Cazorla and Lucas Podolski, but you can't expect to compete for the Premier League and Champions League crowns when you sell your best players.  The most damning part of this is that Robin Van Persie left to win trophies because Arsenal's lack of big signings, coupled with Wenger's comparing Champions League qualification to the title clearly demonstrated a lack of ambition.
     Arsenal were not awful last year, their biggest problem was that they failed to replace Van Persie.  This summer, Wenger supposedly had a £70 transfer fund.  The latest revelation to come out about the transfer market is that a deal for Real Madrid's Gonzalo Higuain was basically done and dusted before he found out that he could possibly get Luis Suarez (more on that here).  Higuain has since moved on to Napoli and the apparent get out clause in Suarez's contract wasn't really a get out clause, meaning Arsenal are back to square one.  Arsenal's only signing of the summer has been Yaya Sanogo from Auxerre on a free transfer.  What's that? You've never heard of him? That's probably because between 2010-13 he had a significant injury and made 21 appearances, scoring 11 goals.  While that's not a bad total, the fact is that an unproven striker is simply not good enough for Arsenal.
     Fast forward to today.  I picked Arsenal to win, but in the back of my mind I though Aston Villa could get a result.  They're a team with lots of youth and speed who can destroy you on the break.  Sure enough, Arsenal were once again inept in front of goal (aside from the tidy finish by Giroud) while Villa weren't at their defensive best.  The first penalty was clearly a penalty, it also should've been a red card.  It was a clear goal scoring opportunity.  Had Agbonlahor not been not been taken down, he would've finished rounding the keeper and scored.  It wasn't a good penalty from Benteke but he got lucky and scored on the rebound.  After that goal Villa looked a different team, putting massive pressure on Arsenal.  The second penalty was also a penalty.  Koscielny may have got his studs on the ball but he had to go through the man to get the ball.  The second yellow was also a stupid foul.  The player had his back to goal and there was no real threat.  The third goal was everything that makes Villa so great to watch.  Defense to attack blindingly quick and then a cool finish.  On the day, Arsenal should have no complaints.  They wasted their chances and were ultimately outplayed.
     Wenger's response should've been "Yes, we were outplayed, we have to do better."  Instead he said he didn't like "the spirit" in which the game was refereed.  I don't know what that means, and for me I think the referee handled the game well.  He also went on to blame the press for their criticism of Arsenal's lack of spending for creating a negative atmosphere.  It wasn't just the papers, it was the club supporters chanting "spend some money" after the third goal.  He believes they could've won the game with the players on the pitch.  I have to disagree with him.  Theo Walcott was their leading scorer last year with 14, Cazorla with 12, and both Podolski and Giroud with 11.  Walcott is a winger, Cazorla is a midfielder who was not consistently great all season.  Podolski and Giroud are the two players brought in to replace Van Persie for goals.  Eleven goals each is simply not good enough.  Contrast this with the Champions for whom Van Persie scored 26, Rooney scored 12, and Javier Hernandez, 10.  The goals simply aren't there for Arsenal and they still aren't there.  Wenger says he doesn't want to bring in players for the sake of bringing them in.  Arsenal need players.  While they've brought in one, seventeen have left the Emirates this summer.  They have virtually no cover for injuries, of which they had two just today.  Add to that the fact that it looks like a stiff breeze could put Jack Wilshere out for half a year and you are left with the inescapable fact that Arsenal don't just need big signings, they need signings to fill out their squad as well.
     So where does this leave Arsenal? The window closes in 15 days.  That doesn't leave a lot of time to bring in all the players needed.  Add to that, now that the season has begun in Europe, Wenger's likely to overpay as well for the players he wants.  The fact of the matter is that it's just not good enough.  Chelsea, Spurs, and City have all made improvements to their squad whereas Arsenal have been stagnant yet again.  It is a royal mess, and I for one don't think Arsene Wenger is the man to clean it up.

Barclay's Premier League Preview

     Since I’m done with law school and the bar exam I actually have time to do things that I enjoy.  Each week I’m going to update this page with my predictions for the Barclays Premier League and Champions League games.  This week I’ll also do my full preview of the Premier League season, including my picks for champion, Champions League spots, and relegations.  When the group stage draw is done I’ll also do something similar for the Champions League.

Team by team prediction for the new season:

     

     Arsenal: Arsene Wenger supposedly has a 70 million pound transfer kitty to spend this summer, but so far he’s only brought in Yaya Sanogo from Auxerre on a free transfer.  Arsenal’s problem last year was replacing Robin Van Persie.  Olivier Giroud and Lucas Podolski put together were not enough to replace what they lost when Van Persie went to Manchester United.  While Santi Cazorla had moments of brilliance in midfield, he didn’t consistently provide the needed spark.  Jack Wilshire always looks to provide a spark but he’s bound to be injured for part of the season again.  The Gunners main rivals for fourth once again look to be Spurs, who have been very active in the transfer market, signing Paulinho from Brazilian side Corinthians and Roberto Soldado from Valencia.  Arsenal were linked with Gonzalo Higuain but he’s already joined Napoli and Arsenal don’t look prepared to meet the 50 million pound asking price for Luis Suarez (who has apparently kissed and made up with Liverpool).  Unless Arsenal make a couple of big signings before the close of the window, there is a very realistic chance that they will be overtaken by Spurs for Fourth.

Final Prediction: 5^th.

     Aston Villa: Villa were a very young, inexperienced squad last year when Paul Lambert took over.  They hit their lowpoint of the season in the Christmas fixture list but responded with great improvement in the second half of the season to beat the drop.  Villa haven’t made any major signings but now that his squad have a season of premier league experience under their belt I think they’ll be much better prepared for the rigors of the Premier League this season.  They were also able to keep star man Christian Benteke who looked to be forming a promising partnership with Andi Weimann.  If Villa play the way they did in the second half of last season, they should continue to improve but if they have a sputtering start to the season, Paul Lambert could be in trouble.

Final Prediction: Mid Table

     Cardiff City: In Wales they’re rejoicing at having two Welsh teams in the Premier League.  Sadly, I’m afraid their joy will be short lived.  It is a massive step up from the Championship to the Premier League, and over 50% of newly promoted teams go straight back down.  Cardiff have made three big additions to their squad since being promoted, singing Gary Medel from Sevilla, Steven Caulker from Spurs, and Andreas Cornelius from Copenhagen.  Gary Medel is nicknamed the Pitbull after Italy’s Gennaro Gattuso, if he plays like Gattuso, no matter how good he is he’s bound to pick up a red card or two and miss games.  Steven Caulker does look a valuable addition to the squad as a solid defender.  Cornelius scored 18 goals in 34 appearances in one season for Copenhagen.  An impressive tally but Copenhagen are the best team in a fairly weak Danish league.  Besides these three players, the only top flight quality player on this team is Craig Bellamy, who’s far past his best.  I just don’t see them having the quality to stay up.

Final Prediction: Relegated

     Chelsea: Jose Mourinho’s trying to prove that you can go home again.  Chelsea have signed Andre Schurrle from Bayer Leverkusen and Marco van Ginkel from Vitesse Arnhem.  Schurrle always looks an exciting player when playing for Leverkusen and he just adds to the quality provided by Mata, Hazard, and Oscar.  If I were a Chelsea fan I’d feel a little better if Chelsea would sign another striker.  Demba Ba should be productive but Fernando Torres has already proven that he’s in the twilight of his career and can’t be relied on.  If it weren’t for Manchester City’s signings I would predict Chelsea to win the league.  Mourinho has a proven track record of winning wherever he goes and I think he’ll pull this Chelsea team together and bring them very, very close.

Final Prediction: Second

     Crystal Palace: Everyone rejoice: Ian Holloway is back in the Premier League.  We’re going to see a hell of a lot of high scoring games that are track meets.  He likes to attack and try to outscore his opponents so it should be a fun season.  Unfortunately, I see Palace as having a struggle similar to Cardiff this season.  There just isn’t enough quality in the side.  Their best player last season was Wilfred Zaha who had already been signed by Man Utd, he’s finally gone there and looks to be fitting in well.  Their biggest signing has been Dwight Gayle from Peterborough.  He has no top flight experience, having scored six goals in twenty appearances.  His best season was in 2011-2012, where he scored 29 in 42, an impressive total, but in non-league football.  Their other signings have been Stephen Dobbie, who scored nine goals in 55 appearances for Swansea.  Kevin Phillips, the ageless striker who scored 18 in 56 appearances over three years for Blackpool also signed but I don’t see him getting a lot of time or goals.  Even with the additional goals, the quality just isn’t there.

Final Prediction: Relegated.

     

     Everton: I’m worried for the Everton supporters.  Everton may not have won anything under David Moyes but they were a solid team.  In his time at Wigan, Martinez had them playing some attractive football but they were very weak defensively.  Everton have brought in Arouna Kone, who played some damn good football while at Wigan.  If Jelavic can recapture his form after singing from Rangers Everton could have a good season but I see them going backward after their sixth place finish.  I hope Roberto Martinez proves me wrong and fields a good defense, but I’ll believe it when I see it. 

Final Prediction: Mid Table

     Fulham: The Cottagers have been buoyed by their recent purchase by Shahid Kahn and have made a couple of shrewd signings by bringing in Adel Taarabt and Darren Bent in who should be able to provide some goals between them.  Fulham’s problem last season was goals against.  They scored 50 and conceded 60.  Their goals scored was higher than every team around them up to West Brom in eighth.  There have been no real improvements to their defense so while I can see Fulham staying where they are, I don’t see them really improving.

Final Prediction: Mid Table

     Hull City: Of the newly promoted teams I think Hull have the best chance to stay up.  Steve Bruce has been there before and he knows how to guide a team through a relegation battle, I think the experience is invaluable.  Curtis Davies, Ahmed Elmohamady, Steven Harper, and Danny Graham all have Premier League experience which will prove invaluable in a relegation fight.  Yannick Sagbo from Evian looks to be a bit of a gamble.  He’s scored 22 in 90 games but the French League, with the exceptions of Monaco and PSG is not very strong.  I think with the experienced Premier League players brought in, Hull will do just enough to stay up.

Final Prediction: Lower Mid Table.

     Liverpool: As Liverpool are my favorite club I could go on for a few paragraphs but won’t.  The good/bad news depending on your perspective is that Luis Suarez is staying, he appears to have kissed and made up and Arsene Wenger apparently isn’t going to come get him. Personally, I think Suarez is a liability who is bound to act out again and get a half season ban this time, Liverpool should cash in while they can.  This Summer, Liverpool have brought in the likes of Kolo Toure, Luis Alberto, Iago Aspas, Simon Mingolet, and Aly Cissokho.  Luis Alberto scored 11 with 17 assists in 38 appearances for Barcelona B last year.  Brendan Rodgers’ short passing style can be likened to Barcelona’s so I think he could be a shrewd pickup for the Reds.  Iago Aspas scored 46 in 136 games for Celta Vigo.  This is about one goal every three games.  It’s not the best tally but he could be used off the bench to supplement contributions from Sturridge and Suarez.  Mingolet and Toure are both good signings with tons of top flight experience.  I was not convinced by Pepe Reina last season and think Mingolet brings in a much steadier hand between the sticks.  If Suarez keeps out of trouble, I think Liverpool can make a move up the table.  It’s all dependent on how Liverpool get through their games without Suarez.  If they can get off to a good start then it could be a very good season for them.  With games against Man United and Swansea among the games he will miss, Liverpool will need to get at least seven points from games against Stoke, Villa, and Southampton.

Final Prediction: Fifth

     Manchester City: I thought Manuel Pellegrini did a hell of a job at Malaga last year considering what he was left to work with.  I think he’ll do an excellent job at Manchester City.  I thought Mancini lucked into his title win and never thought much of his tactics or need to tinker.   I think Pellegrini will get them off to a hot start and have them in top form all season.  I also expect them to have success in Europe.  City already had a strong squad and what will make the difference at the top of the table is their signings.  Fernandinho looks a fantastic addition to an already deadly midfield with David Silva and Samir Nasri.  Jesus Navas has Theo Walcott type speed and he will be a constant threat down the right flank, with Scott Sinclair on the left.  One of the biggest problems I had with Mancini was the fact that he never used wingers properly and never used the flanks, so Navas and Sinclair used properly make City more dangerous by default.  Carlos Tevez finally left, moving to Juventus and was replaced by Alvaro Negredo and Stevan Jovetic.  This is just a ridiculous pool of talent at striker, with Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko already there.  These additions make them far and away the best squad in the league and I think Pellegrini will make them play like a team.

Final Prediction: Champions

     Manchester United: Manchester United supporters, look away.  I think you’re in for a rough season.  Last year Sir Alex had to turn to Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes to fill in a joke of a midfield.  There has been no bolstering of the midfield.  Michael Carrick is going to be your go to midfielder.  He’s not good enough and hasn’t been good enough for a very long time.  If he gets injured, what are your options?  David Moyes has been pursuing Cesc Fabregas all summer who would be a great signing.  Except he’s not coming.  I’m not convinced on David Moyes either.  I’ve never seen one of his sides put together a whole season.  He hasn’t won a trophy. I realize he hasn’t had a great squad or vast resources at his disposal but that doesn’t matter.  In order, the biggest managerial jobs in football are: Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United.  You can’t grow into the Manchester United job, you need to be ready. I don’t think he’s ready and I think United will suffer.

Final Prediction: Fourth

     Newcastle: Loic Remedy could be a decent signing.  One signing, however, isn’t going to fix all the problems Newcastle had last year.  I realize there were a lot of injuries but they were also looking very, very poor.  I still don’t know that Alan Pardew has what it takes to take this team to the next level.  I also don’t think Newcastle have properly replaced Demba Ba.  I don’t think the Magpies will be battling relegation, but I don’t think they’ve done enough to vastly improve either.

Final Prediction: Mid Table

     Norwich City: I really like Chris Hughton as a manager, I thought he was royally shafted by Mike Ashley after he brought Newcastle back to the Premier League.  I thought his Norwich side was very impressive last year and I think he did a better job than Paul Lambert could’ve.  I think they’ve taken a massive step forward by selling Grant Holt and bringing in Gary Hooper and Ricky van Wolfswinkel (I defy you to find me a better name in all of football).  I think these two, especially the latter, are very exciting players who I think can bring Norwich further up the table.

Final Prediction: Upper-Mid Table

     Southampton: In my eyes, the sacking of Nigel Adkins was a bit unfair, but his successor did a great job and had them playing better.  Their main weakness was their defense and they’ve improved that with the signings of Dejan Lovren and Victor Wanyama.  I think they will be just as entertaining to watch and will really vault up the table with a more solid defense.

Final Prediction: Upper-Mid Table

     Stoke City: Now that Tony Pulis has left I don’t know what to expect from Stoke.  I hope for everyone’s sake there’s some more exciting football.  The problems is, they’ve brought in Mark Hughes, who I have absolutely no faith in as a manager.  He’s had loads of money at both QPR and Manchester City and done nothing with it.  I think Tony Pulis left a good roster of players so I don’t think they’ll go down, but I don’t think they’re going to do much better either.

Final Prediction: Mid Table.

     Sunderland: I have no faith whatsoever in Paolo Di Canio.  I’m sure we’ll get some exciting interviews and sideline antics, but past that I don’t think we’re going to get much.  Sunderland have made a lot of signings from outside the Premier League that don’t really improve the quality of the team.  I think bringing in that many players from hither and yon is a dangerous plan (look at QPR from last year, they just used a lot more money).  I think this team will implode under Paolo Di Canio and whoever comes in to pick up the pieces will have too big of a job.

Final Prediction: Relegated.

     Swansea: Michael Laudrup was very impressive in his first season at Swansea and Michu was a revelation.  It will be interesting to see if he performs as well as he did in his first season, I think he will.  Swansea have made a number of signings, the biggest of which is Wilfried Bony from Vitesse.  The Dutch league isn’t what it used to be but 46 goals in 65 appearances is still very impressive.  If he can make that kind of impact here I think Swansea will have a good season, maybe even a great season.  I don’t see them regressing and their primary competition will be Liverpool, it’ll be a battle of whose signings come to grips with the league faster (and that Suarez chap as well). 

Final Prediction: Sixth.

     Tottenham Hotspur: I think this will be the season for Spurs.  AVB had a good first season in charge and he’s made some great signings in Paulinho and Roberto Soldado who will take the pressure off Gareth Bale to provide all the goals for Spurs. I also think Spurs have done a great job keeping Gareth Bale there. It looks as though Real Madrid’s interest has cooled and I don’t think anyone has the money that Spurs have been asking.  I think these new signings will push Spurs over the finish line and coupled with the situations at Arsenal and Man United will push them into the top three.

Final Prediction: Third.

     West Brom: Steve Clarke did a great job taking over from Roy Hodgson at West Brom.  I don’t think they’ll finish as high as they did last season but they haven’t lost many players in the window.  I think a question mark looms over the signing of Nicholas Anelka.  Anelka is nicknamed “Le Sulk” and can probably tear a locker room apart just about as well Terrell Owens.  If he produces goals, that will be great for them, they all say he’s fitting in well but we’ll see how long that lasts.

Final Prediction: Mid Table.

     West Ham: I don’t like watching Sam Allardyce’s teams play because they love the long ball and their football isn’t attractive but his system works.  I think Andy Carroll fits into the system of knockdowns very well and I don’t see them falling down the table.  The second season back in the league should be a good one and I think they’ll do relatively well again.

Final Prediction: Mid Table.

Predictions for the first week of Premier League Games:

     

     Liverpool v. Stoke City: Liverpool need a strong start to the season and they have a good shot at home against Stoke City.  Even without Luis Suarez, I think Liverpool have enough to come through and win this game pretty comfortably. 3-0.

     

     Arsenal v. Aston Villa: Arsenal will be looking to win their opening game of the season at home and I think they should do so.  Olivier Giroud needs to have a good start to the season to show Arsene Wenger he can rely on him to score more regularly than last season.  I think Aston Villa have a chance to sneak a draw here but Arsenal are just too strong at home and I see them eking out a narrow win over Villa. 2-1.

     Norwich v. Everton: I see a win for Norwich written all over this.  I think Everton will take a while to adjust to Roberto Martinez’s free flowing system after playing under David Moyes for such a long time.  Van Wolfswinkel and Hooper will both be looking to make an instant impact and have a good chance to against Everton.  Last season I would’ve said this should be a low scoring affair, but as I said above, I don’t believe Martinez knows how to organize a defense. 3-0.

     Sunderland v. Fulham: I think Fulham can  go into the Stadium of Light on the opening day and squeak out a narrow win.  I don’t think Sunderland have the quality needed and I don’t think Paulo Di Canio is a very good manager.  I think the signings of Bent and Taarabt should make an attack featuring Dimitar Berbatov more dangerous and they’ll take the win. 1-2.

     West Brom v. Southampton: Southampton go into this game being the better all-around team but West Brom are very good defensively and very good at home.  While the defensive additions made by Southampton are important and will make them less vulnerable on the break, it will be a question of breaking down the West Brom defense.  I predict a 0-0 draw in this one.

     

     West Ham v. Cardiff: I predict this one to be a pretty drab affair.  I see West Ham heaving the ball long and trying to break down Cardiff through the air.  Cardiff will be stifled by the West Ham defense and it’ll be up to Cornelius, Cardiff’s big signing, to try to get a goal on the break.  2-1.

     

     Swansea v. Man United: I don’t think Man United have enough to win away at Swansea.  Swansea have a lot of quality and proved last year that they aren’t afraid at anyone.  My gut tells me that this will be a draw but if anyone has a chance to come away with a win I think it’s Swansea, not United. 2-2.

     Crystal Palace v. Spurs: This should be a very entertaining match and a track meet.  Ian Holloway loves to have his sides attack.  Spurs already had a lot of speed with Bale and Lennon and now they also have more quality up front with Paulinho and Soldado.  This game should be hugely entertaining in terms of end to end stuff.  1-5.

     Chelsea v. Hull City: I may think Hull City have a chance to stay up but I don’t see much hope against Chelsea on Mourinho’s homecoming.  I think Hull will be overpowered and am afraid this one could get ugly. 4-0.

     Man City v. Newcastle: Prime time on Monday Night? Seems like a great time to make a statement against an inconsistent Newcastle team that spent a lot of time struggling and managed to lose 6-0 to Liverpool at home.  I think there’s going to be some bloodletting in this one. 3-0. And I’m being kind.

     Chelsea v. Aston Villa: I think Chelsea are going to make it six points from two matches to start the season.  I don’t think Villa will be able to come into the Bridge and get a win but I think they’ll acquit themselves well to show that they’re not pushovers.  It is unfortunate that there first two games are both away to two of the big four.  1-0.

Well that's it for my first post, check back every Friday for my prediction on the next weekend's action.  If you have any suggestions or comments I welcome them.